The Future Of The Rotation
The Pirates have been playing great baseball lately, and that is mostly due to the solid pitching outings they have been getting. It seems all 5 starters have been going out and giving the Pirates a chance to win every game they play. This has really excited me for next season, if the pitching can be this solid, I really think this team can compete. Let's take a look at the possible starters that could be in next year's rotation, and who I like best to fill those spots.
Paul Maholm:
2009 stats: 26 starts, 7-7, 4.59 ERA, 0 CG, 102 SO, 1.426 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 SO/9
Overview: Paul was the Pirates opening day starter this year, but has not pitched as well as we were all expecting. He's been really solid at home and has stretches of greatness. At 27 years old Paul still has a couple more years in his "prime", but I think he has just about reached his ceiling. If he can become more consistent, I think he can be a solid arm in our rotation for the next couple seasons. His performance this year has definitely pushed him down my list though.
Zach Duke:
2009 stats: 26 starts, 10-12, 3.68 ERA, 3 CG, 83 SO, 1.290 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 4.2 SO/9
Overview: Duke is having a huge bounce-back year in 2009. He has been the Pirates' best pitcher and sports that pretty 3.68 ERA. Duke was named to the All-Star team and has had a lot of confidence all year long. His performance this year has really shown that despite not having strikeout stuff he can still be effective as a starter. He pitches to contact but gets a lot of softly hit balls and groundouts. Duke is still at the young age of 26 and could have a little further up to rise until he hits his ceiling. I personally wouldn't expect another season like this from Duke, but I still like him as a part of our future rotation.
Ross Ohlendorf:
2009 stats: 25 starts, 11-8, 4.10 ERA, 0 CG, 84 SO, 1.306 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 5.1 SO/9
Overview: Ross has been great this year for the bucs. He has been getting better and better with every start and has really solidified a spot in the rotation for years to come. He, like Maholm, is 27 years old. However, I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Paul which he has yet to come close to. He has an outstanding sinker and on some nights can really bring it with the fastball. On those kinds of nights he doesn't lose many games. I think Ross is going to be a key part to the future of this team.
Charlie Morton:
2009 stats: 13 starts, 3-6, 5.00 ERA, 0 CG, 43 SO, 1.571 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 6.1 SO/9
Overview: Charlie's numbers aren't impressive in any form of the word. However, he is still learning to pitch in the majors. He is 25 years old and has better stuff than anybody on the Pirates right now. The late-break he has on his pitches makes him almost unhittable at times. His problem this year has been consistency and control. He has been all over the place at times and leaves a lot of pitches over the heart of the plate. Charlie has been getting better and you can tell he is learning fast. I personally think that Morton can be a really good major league pitcher and possibly a 2 or 3 starter for us.
Kevin Hart:
2009 stats: 8 starts, 4-3, 4.14 ERA, 0 CG, 30 SO, 1.600 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, 5.4 SO/9
Overview: Kevin Hart was thrown into the Pirates rotation after he was traded here in the Gorzelanny/Grabow trade. Hart really doesn't impress me much. His numbers aren't bad, but he hasn't shown much for the Pirates this year. He is the kind of guy who can look absolutely terrible on the mound some nights and is subject to getting rocked. I don't see Hart being a starter for the Pirates past this year.
Daniel McCutchen:
2009 stats: 24 starts, 13-6, 3.47 ERA, 0 CG, 110 SO, 1.220 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 6.9 SO/9
Overview:McCutchen has some pretty impressive numbers. He has been great in AAA Indianapolis this year. He isn't exactly a young-prospect, he turns 27 next month, but he is pitching great and could definitely help the Pirates rotation in the future. We will almost certainly be seeing him in a Pirates uniform next week as his name will be called in September call-ups and he will be added to the rotation as the 6 starter. You can never really be sure of a guy who has never pitched a game in the majors, but he definitely has some upside. You can't argue with a 3.47 ERA in 142.2 innings pitched.
Brad Lincoln:
2009 stats: 24 starts, (13 AA, 11 AAA), 6-7, 3.52 ERA, 1 CG, 101 SO, 1.228 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 7.0 SO/9
Overview: Lincoln is a stud in the making. He is only 24 years old and was the Pirates first round pick in 2006. He has outstanding stuff and will battle for a starting job next spring. Lincoln has had some issues in AAA, with a 5.20 ERA there (although he is 5-2), but I expect him to work those issues out and become one of the Pirates' best pitchers for years to come. He could even be our ace as soon as 2011.
Tim Alderson:
2009 stats: 23 starts, 10-2, 3.56 ERA, 0 CG, 81 SO, 1.235 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 5.8 SO/9
Overview: Alderson is a 20-year old future phenom. He is currently in AA for the Pirates, so chances are we won't be seeing him next year, but the kid is so exciting I had to put him in this post. The numbers speak for themselves, he has incredibly control and great composure on the mound. He is leaps and bounds ahead of all the other 20 year old pitchers in his grouping. This guy is a future 1 or 2 starter, and teamed with Brad Lincoln could form one of the league's better rotations with the Pirates.
So where does this leave us for 2010? Well if I were to pick it, I would say our rotation will look something like this:
1. Zach Duke
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. Charlie Morton
4. Paul Maholm
5. Brad Lincoln
For 2011, I'd like to see something more like...
1. Brad Lincoln
2. Charlie Morton
3. Tim Alderson
4. Ross Ohlendorf
5. Zach Duke
Where does this leave guys like Paul Maholm, Kevin Hart, and Daniel McCutchen? I think Hart is going to be moved to the bullpen or just be held in AAA for emergency situations. I'd like to see the Pirates trade Maholm next year while he still has some value. I really don't know what's going to happen with McCutchen. They will give him a chance this year and probably get him starts next season as well, and his standing for the future will be based on how well he pitches over that time. He could be a 3-5 starter for the next couple years, or maybe they'll move him to the bullpen where he has pitched before. Only time will tell.
Paul Maholm:
2009 stats: 26 starts, 7-7, 4.59 ERA, 0 CG, 102 SO, 1.426 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 5.6 SO/9
Overview: Paul was the Pirates opening day starter this year, but has not pitched as well as we were all expecting. He's been really solid at home and has stretches of greatness. At 27 years old Paul still has a couple more years in his "prime", but I think he has just about reached his ceiling. If he can become more consistent, I think he can be a solid arm in our rotation for the next couple seasons. His performance this year has definitely pushed him down my list though.
Zach Duke:
2009 stats: 26 starts, 10-12, 3.68 ERA, 3 CG, 83 SO, 1.290 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 4.2 SO/9
Overview: Duke is having a huge bounce-back year in 2009. He has been the Pirates' best pitcher and sports that pretty 3.68 ERA. Duke was named to the All-Star team and has had a lot of confidence all year long. His performance this year has really shown that despite not having strikeout stuff he can still be effective as a starter. He pitches to contact but gets a lot of softly hit balls and groundouts. Duke is still at the young age of 26 and could have a little further up to rise until he hits his ceiling. I personally wouldn't expect another season like this from Duke, but I still like him as a part of our future rotation.
Ross Ohlendorf:
2009 stats: 25 starts, 11-8, 4.10 ERA, 0 CG, 84 SO, 1.306 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, 5.1 SO/9
Overview: Ross has been great this year for the bucs. He has been getting better and better with every start and has really solidified a spot in the rotation for years to come. He, like Maholm, is 27 years old. However, I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Paul which he has yet to come close to. He has an outstanding sinker and on some nights can really bring it with the fastball. On those kinds of nights he doesn't lose many games. I think Ross is going to be a key part to the future of this team.
Charlie Morton:
2009 stats: 13 starts, 3-6, 5.00 ERA, 0 CG, 43 SO, 1.571 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9, 6.1 SO/9
Overview: Charlie's numbers aren't impressive in any form of the word. However, he is still learning to pitch in the majors. He is 25 years old and has better stuff than anybody on the Pirates right now. The late-break he has on his pitches makes him almost unhittable at times. His problem this year has been consistency and control. He has been all over the place at times and leaves a lot of pitches over the heart of the plate. Charlie has been getting better and you can tell he is learning fast. I personally think that Morton can be a really good major league pitcher and possibly a 2 or 3 starter for us.
Kevin Hart:
2009 stats: 8 starts, 4-3, 4.14 ERA, 0 CG, 30 SO, 1.600 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9, 5.4 SO/9
Overview: Kevin Hart was thrown into the Pirates rotation after he was traded here in the Gorzelanny/Grabow trade. Hart really doesn't impress me much. His numbers aren't bad, but he hasn't shown much for the Pirates this year. He is the kind of guy who can look absolutely terrible on the mound some nights and is subject to getting rocked. I don't see Hart being a starter for the Pirates past this year.
Daniel McCutchen:
2009 stats: 24 starts, 13-6, 3.47 ERA, 0 CG, 110 SO, 1.220 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 6.9 SO/9
Overview:McCutchen has some pretty impressive numbers. He has been great in AAA Indianapolis this year. He isn't exactly a young-prospect, he turns 27 next month, but he is pitching great and could definitely help the Pirates rotation in the future. We will almost certainly be seeing him in a Pirates uniform next week as his name will be called in September call-ups and he will be added to the rotation as the 6 starter. You can never really be sure of a guy who has never pitched a game in the majors, but he definitely has some upside. You can't argue with a 3.47 ERA in 142.2 innings pitched.
Brad Lincoln:
2009 stats: 24 starts, (13 AA, 11 AAA), 6-7, 3.52 ERA, 1 CG, 101 SO, 1.228 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 7.0 SO/9
Overview: Lincoln is a stud in the making. He is only 24 years old and was the Pirates first round pick in 2006. He has outstanding stuff and will battle for a starting job next spring. Lincoln has had some issues in AAA, with a 5.20 ERA there (although he is 5-2), but I expect him to work those issues out and become one of the Pirates' best pitchers for years to come. He could even be our ace as soon as 2011.
Tim Alderson:
2009 stats: 23 starts, 10-2, 3.56 ERA, 0 CG, 81 SO, 1.235 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 5.8 SO/9
Overview: Alderson is a 20-year old future phenom. He is currently in AA for the Pirates, so chances are we won't be seeing him next year, but the kid is so exciting I had to put him in this post. The numbers speak for themselves, he has incredibly control and great composure on the mound. He is leaps and bounds ahead of all the other 20 year old pitchers in his grouping. This guy is a future 1 or 2 starter, and teamed with Brad Lincoln could form one of the league's better rotations with the Pirates.
So where does this leave us for 2010? Well if I were to pick it, I would say our rotation will look something like this:
1. Zach Duke
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. Charlie Morton
4. Paul Maholm
5. Brad Lincoln
For 2011, I'd like to see something more like...
1. Brad Lincoln
2. Charlie Morton
3. Tim Alderson
4. Ross Ohlendorf
5. Zach Duke
Where does this leave guys like Paul Maholm, Kevin Hart, and Daniel McCutchen? I think Hart is going to be moved to the bullpen or just be held in AAA for emergency situations. I'd like to see the Pirates trade Maholm next year while he still has some value. I really don't know what's going to happen with McCutchen. They will give him a chance this year and probably get him starts next season as well, and his standing for the future will be based on how well he pitches over that time. He could be a 3-5 starter for the next couple years, or maybe they'll move him to the bullpen where he has pitched before. Only time will tell.
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